How artificial intelligence can predict the Green Bond market?
Artificial intelligence (AI) can predict the issuance of green bonds around the world with a “very high degree of confidence”, according to a new study.
The report claims to be the first large-scale study of its kind and is based on a database containing 30 gigabytes of information related to 117 countries and 9,000 green bond issuers. It was conducted by two professors from Maseeh, one of the best universities in Chin.
The database contains information such as credit ratings of sovereigns, living standards, unique country identifiers, total debt levels, population sizes and the subsequent comparison of each country’s development status.
When this dataset is trained using the AI model, it enables a computer to predict with “a very high degree of confidence” which countries will issue green bonds over a period of time, whether they are developed or underdeveloped nations, the authors believe.
More specifically, a country will issue a green bond if it has a decent credit rating and debt ratio. Countries like China and India are predicted to continue devolping their green bond infrastructure in the next two years, judging by their recent history. Hungary and Iceland also register as high-probability issuers. Britain and Canada were predicted to issue green bonds in both 2018 and 2019.
The research was intended to measure the ability of artificial intelligence to make financial predictions. The findings were presented at the International Association for Business and Industrial Economic Research Annual Conference in Norway last week. The authors claim that their AI model is able to outperform human predictions by 50%.
We use machines to amplify that creative power inside each of us because they have much better analytical abilities than humans, so they can deal quickly with large amounts of data until they find the signal amidst all the noise. That allows them to determine what products you would like, what job you would excel at, or even which new medicine may save your life. And because they can do this so much faster than us humans, they also allow us a lot more free time—that is, time that we don't spend mired down collecting and analyzing data.
What will we should do with all this newly freed time? Well … we’re still figuring out that answer. The goal for most companies is to give you as much free time as possible in order to make you more consumably efficient—to keep you glued to whatever platform of creative expression(s) they own. Facebook wants you spending as much time on Facebook as possible; Amazon wants you ordering stuff from Amazon; Google wants you asking Google questions; Microsoft wants you playing with its new computer service (if it’s not already too late); etc. We want these companies to succeed in this grand scheme by getting more stuff onto their platforms: more photos for Facebook; more orders through Amazon; more queries googling for Google and Bing; more gamers moving money into the Microsoft ecosystem; etc.
But let’s just say this vision goes against your personal value system—or maybe it just doesn’t go far enough! What can you actually do with your newly free time? Can you get away with using your extra free hours/days/years in really meaningful ways? Is there any reason why you shouldn't sit in front of a screen somewhere pouring yourself into your passions for years on end? Or are there potentially other things that you could be doing? Here are three suggestions for how people might be spending this extra free time:
Supporting someone through hard times. Volunteering your time and/or money. Working on a project that might make life better for others (and, at least in the world of business, perhaps also earn you some cash).
Of course, some might look at this list and say: But why would anyone in their right mind volunteer for anything? Is there really anything good that can come from people offering up their labor for free? Maybe. Maybe not. But if volunteering time isn’t part of your vision for the future, then there’s always option number three: making the world a better place through productivity. And boy is work ever needed. There are plenty of people who need to fix computers or help users login into their accounts or do other tech stuff. And there are lots of people out there who use computers everyday and don’t know how to fix them when they get broken. It might not be a intellectually stimulating task but it is an equally valuable task nonetheless—unless you are planning on taking up the task of being “intellectually stimulating” manually rather than diluting that task over many computers (think crowdsourcing).
But if it’s not obvious ... I am strongly pro-productivity sector so my overall advice would be not to diversify but double down!